Sunday, May 6, 2012

Aussie Falls as RBA Cut Growth Forecast

DDDD
The Australian dollar tumbled as the Reserve Bank of Australia revised its growth forecast for this year downwardly, spurring speculation that more interest rate cuts will follow.

The RBA forecast that nation’s gross domestic product will rise 3 percent, compared to the previous estimate of 3.5 percent. Inflation growth was revised from 3 percent to 2.5 percent. The central bank wrote in its policy statement:

    The assumed high level of the exchange rate and a weak short-term outlook for building construction are expected to result in subdued growth outside of the mining sector in the near term.

Risk aversion sentiment that was ruling markets yesterday wasn’t helping the Aussie. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index slipped 0.6 percent. Between domestic problems and bad news from overseas, it is no surprise that the growth-linked Australian currency was weakening.

AUD/USD slid from 1.0262 to 1.0170 — the lowest rate since January 9. AUD/JPY sank from 82.31 to 81.22, while the daily low of 81.17 was the lowest since February 1. EUR/AUD climbed from 1.2811 to 1.2918, the highest level since December 22 before closing at 1.2857.

Euro Drops Ahead of Elections on Weekend

DDDD
The euro was falling today as elections in European countries this weekend and the next week add to uncertainty regarding the ability of the eurozone to withstand its financial crisis.

Greece is the country that was most damaged by the crisis and its parliamentary elections on May 6 are very important for the well-being of the euro. As Holger Schmieding, a chief economist at Berenberg Bank, outlined:

    The biggest risk for markets is that in Greece we just don’t get a government and it becomes completely unclear whether or not Greece will be able to comply with the austerity program. If we’re unlucky on Monday morning, markets may wonder whether Greece will be out of the euro within a few months.

There are also presidential elections in France and mayoral in Italy. Votes in German states of Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia should show how popular (or unpopular) is Angela Merkel and her party.

The euro jumped against the US dollar after the unfavorable US non-farm payrolls, but quickly resumed its decline. The elections may actually be positive for the euro if the eurozone will change its “austerity” path to the one of ”stimulating growth”.

EUR/USD climbed from 1.3152 to 1.3178, but then sank to 1.3083 as of 20:52 GMT today. EUR/JPY slid from 105.45 to 104.42, touching 104.39 intraday — the lowest rate since February 17. EUR/GBP sank from 0.8127 to its daily low of 0.8094 (was the lowest since June 30, 2010).

Pound Gains vs. Euro Ahead of Elections in France & Greece

DDDD
The Great Britain pound gained against the euro today as Forex traders were nervous before the election in Greece and France this week. The currency fell against the US dollar despite the negative fundamental data from the United States.

The French will vote in the final round of the presidential elections on May 6, while Greeks will choose a new parliament. Some participants use plenty of anti-euro rhetorics in their speeches. It is likely that whoever would win the elections would be more moderate in their actions than in their speeches, but uncertainty makes traders shy away from the shared 17-nation currency. Fundamentals in Britain itself are bad enough to prevent the pound from rallying against other currencies.

EUR/GBP fell from 0.8127 to 0.8110 as of 15:27 GMT today. GBP/USD was down from 1.6176 to 1.6153.
Friday, April 27, 2012

GBP/USD Falls After Greek Bondholders Suffer Losses

DDDD
The Great Britain pound slipped versus the US dollar as investors shunned European assets after private holders of Greek debt suffered losses on Greece’s bonds. The currency was still up against the euro and the Japanese yen.

Greece used collective action clauses to increase participation of investors in the bond swap program. As a result, the International Swaps & Derivatives Association announced that “a Restructuring Credit Event has occurred with respect to The Hellenic Republic (Greece)”. This ruling triggered payouts on about $3 billion of default insurance.

The pound fell against the dollar also because the US currency was too strong after US nonfarm payrolls came out better than expected. As for Britain’s fundamentals, the data was mixed. The Bank of England decided on March 8 to keep its main interest rate at 0.5 percent and asset purchase program at £325 billion.

GBP/USD slumped from 1.5827 to close at 1.5670, while the intraday minimum of 1.5661 was lowest since February 23. At the same time, EUR/GBP was down from 0.8380 to 0.8370 (the daily low was 0.8344) and GBP/JPY was up from 129.06 to 129.22.

UK Pound Gains against the US Dollar

DDDD
The UK pound is rising against the US dollar, enjoying gains not seen for more than a week. The latest interest rate decision by the Bank of England is to keep it the same. Additionally, the Bank of England is going to keep its debt-purchase program on hold for now.

The news that the Bank of England doesn’t feel it needs to continue with its quantitative easing program is welcome to many Forex traders, and is providing a measure of support for the sterling. However, even though it appears that members of the Monetary Policy Committee believe that the economy is doing well enough to preclude more easing, they still aren’t comfortable enough with growth to raise interest rates from their record low. The news is positive enough, though, to help the pound against the US dollar.


For now, the pound is lower against the euro in Forex trading. The ECB kept its benchmark rate the same as well. What many Forex traders are really waiting for, though, is the news of the Greek deal. If everything goes according to plan, the euro should get a boost against the pound. If there are hiccups, though, and if the Greek debt swap doesn’t happen, the sterling could gain against the euro.

At 14:11 GMT GBP/USD is higher at 1.5795, up from the open at 1.5741. EUR/GBP is higher at 0.8387, up from the open at 0.8353.

UK Pound Declines against US Dollar

DDDD
UK pound is declining against the US dollar today, thanks to general risk aversion weighing on high beta currencies, as well as disappointing economic data out of Great Britain. Against the euro, sterling is struggling as well, although there have been swings between gains and losses.

The lastest UK housing data has been disappointing, showing that February housing prices were down 0.5% from the previous month. The news is discouraging to many, who are looking for signs of an improving UK economy. Retail sales data has also disappointed recently. With these signs of economic slowing, it is little surprise that the pound is struggling.

However, it’s not just British economic data weighing on the pound — especially against the US dollar. The UK pound is also declining as risk aversion sets in. Concerns about what’s next in the Greek drama (debt swaps are scheduled for later this week) have Forex traders reluctant to favor high beta currencies. Even with this trouble, though, the pound isn’t able to log solid gains against the euro. Instead, EUR/GBP remains around the same level as at open, occasionally dipping lower, or moving slightly higher.

At 15:47 GMT EUR/GBP is at 0.8332, very slightly higher than the open at 0.8331. GBP/USD is lower at 1.5745, down from the open at 1.5865. GBP/JPY is also lower at 127.1740, down from the open at 129.3925.

GBP/USD Falls After Greek Bondholders Suffer Losses

DDDD
The Great Britain pound slipped versus the US dollar as investors shunned European assets after private holders of Greek debt suffered losses on Greece’s bonds. The currency was still up against the euro and the Japanese yen.

Greece used collective action clauses to increase participation of investors in the bond swap program. As a result, the International Swaps & Derivatives Association announced that “a Restructuring Credit Event has occurred with respect to The Hellenic Republic (Greece)”. This ruling triggered payouts on about $3 billion of default insurance.

The pound fell against the dollar also because the US currency was too strong after US nonfarm payrolls came out better than expected. As for Britain’s fundamentals, the data was mixed. The Bank of England decided on March 8 to keep its main interest rate at 0.5 percent and asset purchase program at £325 billion.

GBP/USD slumped from 1.5827 to close at 1.5670, while the intraday minimum of 1.5661 was lowest since February 23. At the same time, EUR/GBP was down from 0.8380 to 0.8370 (the daily low was 0.8344) and GBP/JPY was up from 129.06 to 129.22.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Pound Falls as GDP Shrinks

DDDD
The Great Britain pound fell today after a government report showed that the UK economy unexpectedly declined in the first quarter of this year, reducing appeal of the nation’s currency.
Britain’s gross domestic product dropped 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2012, following the drop by 0.3 percent in the previous quarter. Traders were frustrated as analysts predicted a 0.1 percent increase. Gross value added grew 0.2 percent in February on an annual basis, while an advance by 0.6 percent was predicted. The worse-than-expected data added incentive for the Bank of England to ease its monetary policy and reduced demand for the pound. Improving sentiment about the situation in Europe was also negative for the UK currency.
GBP/USD was down from 1.6142 to 1.6085 and GBP/JPY dropped from 131.23 to 130.57 as of 9:21 GMT today.

Rand Gains for Second Day on European Bonds & US Corporate Profits

DDDD
The South African rand gained today for the second day after yields on European bonds fell, easing nervousness about Europe’s troubles, and as US corporate profits were above forecasts.
Falling yields for Spanish, Italian and Dutch bonds gave investors hope that Europe may yet emerge from its financial crisis. Apple reported that it almost doubled its profit in the second fiscal quarter as demand for iPhone grew in China. All in all, market sentiment was good today and that allowed riskier currency of South Africa to advance.
USD/ZAR fell from 7.7910 to 7.7590 as of 8:49 GMT today, while the daily low of 7.7480 was the lowest since April 4.
If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the South African Rand, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Aussie Goes Down as CPI Growth Below Expectations

DDDD
The Australian dollar fell today as a government report showed that nation’s consumer prices rose in the last quarter far slower that was anticipated by market analysts, triggering speculation about an interest rate cut.
Australia’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012, while much bigger growth by 0.7 percent was predicted by economists. The trimmed mean CPI (core CPI) increase 0.3 percent, while forecasters said that it would stay at 0.6 percent as in the the fourth quarter of 2011. The slowing inflation added incentive for the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce interest rates. The problems in Europe also reduce demand for the Aussie, as well as other currencies with higher yield.
AUD/USD fell from 1.0321 to 1.0310 as of 14:35 GMT today, following the drop to 1.0246 — the lowest level since April 11. AUD/JPY was down from 83.76 to 82.85 before trading at 73.68.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Aussie Goes Down as CPI Growth Below Expectations

DDDD
The Australian dollar fell today as a government report showed that nation’s consumer prices rose in the last quarter far slower that was anticipated by market analysts, triggering speculation about an interest rate cut.
Australia’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012, while much bigger growth by 0.7 percent was predicted by economists. The trimmed mean CPI (core CPI) increase 0.3 percent, while forecasters said that it would stay at 0.6 percent as in the the fourth quarter of 2011. The slowing inflation added incentive for the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce interest rates. The problems in Europe also reduce demand for the Aussie, as well as other currencies with higher yield.
AUD/USD fell from 1.0321 to 1.0310 as of 14:35 GMT today, following the drop to 1.0246 — the lowest level since April 11. AUD/JPY was down from 83.76 to 82.85 before trading at 73.68.

Japanese Yen Mixed Today

DDDD
Japanese yen is mixed today as Forex traders look for direction. There is a lot to think about today, in terms of news and forecasts, and currencies are part of the confusion. Yen has slipped against the euro after choppy trading, but is higher against the pound and the dollar.

Japanese yen is down against the euro, which is gaining ground on the enthusiasm surrounding a solid Dutch bond auction — in spite of the recent resignation of Mark Rutte and the collapse of the government in the Netherlands. However, yen is higher against the dollar and the pound as Forex traders and others show a measure of caution.
US stocks continue to gain cautiously, and European stocks remain mixed. There is a lack of direction in the financial markets today, and that is translating to the currency market. It is uncertain, however, how much longer the yen will remain higher against the dollar. The recent strength of the yen has Japanese lawmakers concerned, and pressure is building for the Bank of Japan to take matters into its own hands and intervene to weaken the yen.
At 14:06 GMT USD/JPY is lower at 81.0785, down from the open at 81.1900. EUR/JPY is higher at 107.0030, up from the open at 106.8145. GBP/JPY is lower at 130.8140, down from the open at 130.9550.

Euro Rangebound in Forex Trading

DDDD
Euro is mostly rangebound today, making small gains against the US dollar, after a Dutch bond auction proved reasonably successful. The euro has been struggling lately due to concerns about the political stability of eurozone countries, as well as continued worries about Spain.

Earlier, a bond auction in the Netherlands was deemed a success. There had been some questions about the bond auction, since the resignation of Prime Minister Mark Rutte and the collapse of the Dutch government. With politicians unable to agree on budgetary measures, the government is at an impasse and an early general election looks like it will be called.
The bond auction out of the Netherlands, though, is steadying the euro somewhat in Forex trading. It appears that the Netherlands is likely to maintain its AAA rating — one of the few eurozone countries that still has such a rating. However, the euro is far from out of the woods.
Concerns about Spain, as well as worries about other countries with sovereign debt problems, are still extent. And, of course, there is uncertainty in France, where Nicolas Sarkozy appears to be losing the presidential race.
At 13:07 GMT EUR/USD has started to break higher at 1.3166, up from the open at 1.3157. EUR/JPY is lower at 106.7410, down from the open at 106.8145. EUR/GBP remains at the same level as the open, at 0.8158.

Monday, April 23, 2012

US Dollar Index Gains as Traders Consider Consolidation

DDDD

Yesterday’s buoyant tone and risk appetite have receded, leaving the US dollar to log gains against some currencies right now. The dollar index is heading higher, as the greenback gains against some of its major counterparts, especially the euro and the yen.


Yesterday, better news out of Europe, combined with an enthusiasm for stocks, led to a lower US dollar. The dollar index dropped below 80 as many traders looked for better yields. Today, though, many have taken a bit of a step back. Stock traders appear to be in consolidation mode after yesterday’s spectacular rally, and there is once again some focus on the eurozone and its problems.

Right now, though, a higher US dollar is putting downward pressure on commodities. Gold prices are lower today, along with oil prices. Greenback is showing strength against the euro and franc, as well as against the yen right now, which is boosting the dollar index performance. This is significant, as the US dollar is modestly lower against the pound today, and mostly flat against the Canadian dollar.

This mixed performance by the US dollar isn’t stopping the dollar index from rising, though. The gains made by the dollar against the euro and the yen are significant enough to keep the dollar index in positive territory.

At 13:08 GMT the dollar index is at 79.827, up from the open at 79.570. EUR/USD is down to 1.3072 from the open at 1.3126. USD/JPY is up to 81.3515 from the open at 80.8430. GBP/USD is up to 1.5977 from the open at 1.5926. USD/CHF is up to 0.9199 from the open at 0.9152. USD/CAD is mostly flat at 0.9902 from the open at 0.9903.

Bank of Canada Comments Send Loonie Higher

DDDD


Right now, the Canadian dollar is seeing gains against nearly all of its major counterparts as the Bank of Canada comes out sounding a bit hawkish. Loonie is finding support in general risk appetite as well, and receiving some help from higher oil prices.

Everything seems to be going right for the Canadian dollar today. The BOC came out and said that putting a stop to stimulus measures might be a priority, and many are taking that to mean that an interest rate hike is on the way. In a low-yield environment, any currency connected to an interest rate hike is likely to be favored in the currency market.

On top of the seemingly hawkish comments from the Bank of Canada, there are also other forms of support for the loonie in forex trading. Risk appetite in general is on the rise, as demand in the Spanish bond auction allays some economic fears. The International Monetary Fund has improved its forecast for the global economy, including a boost for the US economy, which is a major trading partner for Canada. Higher oil prices are also helping the loonie today, since oil is a major export for Canada.

At 14:24 GMT USD/CAD is down to 0.9875 from the open at 0.9993. GBP/CAD is lower at 1.5739, down from the 1.5890. EUR/CAD is down to 1.2966 fromt he open at 1.3120.

Euro Lower Against Many Counterparts

DDDD

Euro is lower against many of its counterparts today, dropping as concerns about the European debt situation continue to dominate the news. Spain is expected to auction off bonds today, and there are concerns about climbing yields. Additionally, there are expectations of a drop in investor confidence in Germany.

Concerns about the eurozone are dominating news today as Forex traders consider that the sovereign debt situation might be contagious. Worries about the spread of the crisis are keeping the euro lower against most of its major counterparts. It’s also not helping that, in Germany, investor confidence appears to be waning.

For now, the ECB isn’t interested in bailing out Spain. The Spanish Prime Minster, Mariano Rajoy, says that Spain will employ large cuts, but it might not be enough. Besides, large cuts from the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy could slow eurozone economic growth as a whole, and there are already recession fears.

It is little surprise that the eurozone is struggling, and that the euro is struggling as well. The 17-nation currency is down against the US dollar and the UK pound, as well as struggling against many other currencies today.

At 13:27 GMT EUR/USD is lower at 1.3131, down from the open at 1.3141. EUR/GBP is down to 0.8237 from the open at 0.8266. EUR/CHF is lower at 1.2016, down from the open at 1.2018.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Obama threatens veto of highway bill over Keystone XL pipeline

DDDD
Time for another showdown over energy policy.  House Republicans included a provision in the new highway bill extension (five months) that would force the Obama administration to approve the complete construction of the Keystone XL pipeline.  The White House reacted about as well as one would imagine:

The White House on Tuesday threatened to veto House legislation to extend transportation programs because it contains GOP language that mandates approval of the Keystone XL oil sands pipeline.

The House is slated to vote Wednesday on the bill that keeps the transportation programs funded through September, the end of the fiscal year.

It would take permitting of the proposed Alberta-to-Texas pipeline away from the State Department and task the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission with approving the project.

“Because this bill circumvents a longstanding and proven process for determining whether cross-border pipelines are in the national interest by mandating the permitting of the Keystone XL pipeline before a new route has been submitted and assessed, the president’s senior advisers would recommend that he veto this legislation,” the White House said in a formal “statement of administration policy” Tuesday afternoon.

A “proven process”?  Congress has had to push the Obama administration into action more than once to get the approval in place.  They forced Obama to issue a denial at the beginning of the year, although Obama later had to lobby the Senate to keep the rejection in place.  When that turned out to be unpopular, Obama began talking up the pipeline, ostentatiously “approving” a part of the pipeline construction that didn’t need federal approval anyway.

Time is running out on American interest in Canada’s oil-sands product.  The media in the US didn’t cover the so-called “Three Amigos” summit, but Investors Business Daily kept up with the Canadian papers, which did cover Stephen Harper’s warnings to Obama on obstructionism over Keystone:

Energy has become a searing rift between the U.S. and Canada and threatens to leave the U.S. without its top energy supplier.

The Winnipeg Free Press reported that Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper warned Obama the U.S. will have to pay market prices for its Canadian oil after Obama’s de facto veto of the Keystone XL pipeline. Canada is preparing to sell its oil to China.

Until now, NAFTA had shielded the U.S. from having to pay global prices for Canadian oil. That’s about to change.

In other words, just as the White House has to come up with a strategy for dealing with increasing prices at the pump, they’re actively ensuring that prices will go up even higher.  That’s not exactly smart, nor is it “smart power.”

On the other hand, perhaps the highway bill should be vetoed — but not because of the Keystone XL issue:

The Republican House of Representatives may soon follow the Democratic Senate and give the IRS the power to confiscate your passport on mere suspicion of owing taxes. There’s no place like home, comrade.

‘America, Love It Or Leave It” might be an obsolete slogan if the “bipartisan transportation bill” that just passed the Senate is approved by the House and becomes law. Contained within the suspiciously titled “Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act,” or “MAP 21,” is a provision that gives the Internal Revenue Service the power to keep U.S. citizens from leaving the country if it finds that they owe $50,000 or more in unpaid taxes — no court ruling necessary.

It is hard to imagine any law more reminiscent of the Soviet Union that America toppled, or its Eastern Bloc slave satellites.

Passports only get confiscated by courts, usually only when a flight risk is established.  Do we want bureaucrats making those decisions with no recourse to normal due process, especially over civil issues of tax bills?  If the IRS thinks that a taxpayer in arrears is a flight risk, let them go to a judge to get an order for passport seizure, a process that at least affords a citizen the right to challenge the accusation and defend himself before a disinterested third party.  This is a bad idea, and House Republicans should insist that it get stripped from the highway bill before sending it to the President.

CBS/NYT poll shows dead heat between Obama, Romney at 46%

DDDD
So much for that eight-point lead in the secretly-weighted CNN poll, eh?  CBS gives us a sneak peek at their first general-election poll of the season, in partnership with the New York Times, and finds a dead heat in the mid-40s:

Mitt Romney has closed the gap with President Obama among registered voters, a CBS News/New York Times poll released Wednesday found, putting the former Massachusetts governor in a dead heat with the president for the White House.

Mr. Obama and Romney each received support from 46 percent of registered voters when asked who they would vote for if the election were held today. In March, a CBS News/New York Times survey found that Mr. Obama held a slight advantage over Romney of 47 percent to 44 percent.

Normally, I’d take a poll from a media outlet and thoroughly vet the internals before posting an analysis.  CBS didn’t provide the internals of their new poll, however, so we’ll have to make do with their review of the data.  The topline results match what most other pollsters are finding, within the margin of error.  In fact, it matches what CNN found in their poll of general-population adults — at least before they turned a 48/47 result for Obama into a 53/41 without any explanation whatsoever.

The key here is that Obama is only drawing 46% as the incumbent and the unchallenged Democratic contender in the race.  Romney only gets to 46% too, but as the internals show, there is still plenty of upside from the end of the primary fight:

Following the end of Santorum’s bid for the presidency, Republican primary voters have rallied behind Romney, with 54 percent saying they want him to lead Republicans into the fall campaign season. That’s a significant difference from March, when only 30 percent wanted him to be the nominee.

Gingrich was preferred among 20 percent of Republican primary voters; Paul received support from 12 percent. Nine percent picked “someone else.” When asked if Santorum should have suspended his campaign, 63 percent of those polled said yes; 30 percent said no.

Still, many Republicans expressed lukewarm feelings toward Romney, with 40 percent of primary voters having reservations about him compared with 33 percent saying they supported him “enthusiastically.” In January, the last time a CBS News/New York Times survey asked primary voters about Romney, 28 percent said they supported him enthusiastically and 38 percent had reservations.

We’re at 46/46 without having hit a real “honeymoon” stage for Romney after the practical end of the Republican fight.  That’s bad news for Team Obama, especially while facing a slowing economy and rising gas prices, and having nothing to offer but Buffett Rules and nostalgia.

We do have the internals for the Reuters/Ipsos poll from yesterday, and they’re pretty much nonsense.  The poll shows Obama up four over Romney, 47/43, but that’s with a stated D/R/I of 47/38/15.  That’s only predictive if one believes that Democrats will gain eight points over their 2008 turnout, and have two points more of a lead over Republicans than that election provided, according to CNN’s exit polls.  Without counting the leaners, the D/R/I is still an odd 29/22/49.

In either case, having a lead within the MoE on a skew of this proportion should also have the White House worried.  But there is one key indicator that looks even worse for Obama, which is his approval ratings.  They peg Obama approval at 49/49, which is attributable largely to the sample skew, and is hardly impressive.  But his approval among independents is a disastrous 37/57, down from 42/54 in March and 45/44 in January.  He’s crashing and burning in the middle, where Obama won the 2008 election.

Great news: Senate record for shirking responsibility to continue through 2012 elections

DDDD
Whew. For a while there, we thought that the streak might be coming to an end:

Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) bowed to pressure from fellow Democrats on Tuesday and postponed a committee vote on a 2013 budget resolution, most likely until after the November elections.

Conrad on Wednesday will begin a committee markup of a resolution based on the Bowles-Simpson deficit recommendations, but told reporters there is no date scheduled on which the markup vote would occur.

“This is the wrong time to vote in committee; this is the wrong time to vote on the floor,” he said. “I don’t think we will be prepared to vote before the election.”

At least Democrats are consistent.  It has been the wrong time to vote for a budget resolution in the Senate — in committee and on the floor — for 1,085 days now. That’s been true when Democrats had 59 votes as well as 53 votes, as they do now.  To borrow from James Taylor: Winter, spring, summer or fall … all Harry Reid has to do is call … and the budget won’t be there, yeah … you’ve got a stall.

Conrad plans to hold “markup” sessions without votes, but Keith Hennessey says that markup sessions without votes are just meetings:

I imagine Chairman Conrad will receive favorable press coverage for proposing the bipartisan Bowles-Simpson recommendations.  If he doesn’t use his power as Chairman to force a vote, however, then his proposal is little more than an interesting debate topic.

Unless I’m missing something Chairman Conrad is not marking up a budget resolution tomorrow.  He is instead convening the committee for a discussion.  He will lay down the Bowles-Simpson numbers as his own and everyone will talk.  Then he will adjourn the meeting tomorrow without any votes, without any date to reconvene, without any deadline or forcing action for private bipartisan negotiations he hopes will then occur but for which he has low expectations of success.

It’s not a markup if you don’t vote.

The job of a Member of Congress is to vote on legislation, not to talk about legislation.  Talk is sometimes helpful but If Members of Congress are not voting they’re not doing their job.

As Hennessey also points out, it’s not just that Senate Democrats aren’t doing their job.  They’re violating the law.  The Congressional Budget Act requires both chambers to produce budget resolutions by April 15th, a date chosen for obvious reasons.  American taxpayers don’t get the option of simply skipping their taxes until the “right time” to do them magically appears, and yet Senate Democrats have chosen to flout the law despite controlling the upper chamber and having a fellow Democrat in the White House.

This isn’t leadership.  It’s not stewardship.  It’s a flaccid, passive-aggressive, three-year-long streak of political cowardice, a disgrace that Conrad will carry into his retirement as his political legacy.

Sunday, April 15, 2012

Congresswoman lets the air out of the inflated student loan industry, says there’s no reason for it

DDDD
In a radio interview today, North Carolina Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx recounted the way she worked her way through college and said “there’s no reason” for students to graduate with $80,000 or $200,000 in student-loan debt.

ThinkProgress flagged the interview as though it somehow reflected poorly on Foxx, but I really fail to see how she’s not offering a hopeful message. She’s essentially just saying, “Hey kids, you don’t have to take on the crushing burden of student-loan debt! You have options.” Who doesn’t want to hear that?

True, college tuition is higher than ever — but that’s largely because the government pumps so much money into higher education, through loans and other programs. Hate to break it to future college students, but college tuition prices are likely to continue to go up. Through Obamacare, the administration completely took over the student loan industry. That’s a recipe for the creation of the same kind of bubble that eventually burst into the housing crisis.

Admittedly, it takes a delayed-gratification mindset to work through school. Alternatively, it might take humility to choose a school you can afford over the dream school you can’t afford. It’ll be worth it, though, when you graduate debt-free or with a debt you’ll actually be able to repay.

Occasionally, you’ll hear a person talk about student-loan debt as though the borrower had no choice but to take out the loan. Maybe life didn’t turn out the way the borrower expected. Maybe he entered the workforce when the economy was poor and doesn’t have a job with the kind of salary he expected. Those circumstances cause the borrower to look back on the decision he made to take out the loan and to try to avoid responsibility for it. Just because he thought he’d be able to pay it off when he took it out and now finds it’s not as easy as he thought, though, doesn’t mean he still didn’t decide to take out the loan. When you take out a loan, you are responsible to pay it back. That is the nature of a loan.

Nothing is more empowering in life than the realization that you can take responsibility for your own decisions — and change your decisions in the future if you don’t like the consequences of the decisions you’ve made up to this point! Why don’t liberals won’t individuals to experience that kind of liberation and empowerment?


Obama: OK, now immigration reform really is my top priority

DDDD
Remember when Barack Obama said he was going to tackle immigration reform in his first year in office? At the time, he had majorities in both the House and the Senate. Now, though, he doesn’t — and, while he deeply cares about the issue and wants to do something to fix a broken system, he just can’t. That darn Congress — only half of which is Republican, mind you — won’t let him.

He says he’ll make it his top priority post-reelection, though — but no promises that he’ll accomplish anything. He’ll still have to deal with those obstructive Republicans!

“I can promise that I will try to do it in the first year of my second term,” Obama said in an interview with Univision set to air on Sunday. “I want to try this year. The challenge we’ve got on immigration reform is very simple. I’ve got a majority of Democrats who are prepared to vote for it, and I’ve got no Republicans who are prepared to vote for it. …

“So what we need is a change either of Congress or we need Republicans to change their mind, and I think this has to be an important debate during – throughout the country. …

“And so I’m just going to keep on pushing as hard as I can, and what I’m going to be encouraging is the Latino community continue to ask every member of Congress where they stand on these issues, but the one thing that I think everybody needs to understand is that this is something I care deeply about. It’s personal to me, and I will do everything that I can to try to get it done. But ultimately I’m going to need Congress to help me.”

Let me translate all of that for you: “I’m President Obama and I’m ineffective. I can’t do what I want to do. My hands are tied.”

Why — if the president really wants to accomplish immigration reform — would he predict gridlock before he even proposes his preferred immigration policy? That’s no way to inspire those who disagree with him to work with him. I thought it was a sign of leadership to be able to obtain buy-in and inspire consensus. In fact, I seem to remember that Obama once ran for president on his ability to do just that.

He thinks there’s no common ground on immigration? I’ll take that to mean he doesn’t want the law to be respected, he doesn’t want secure borders and he doesn’t want an efficient immigration system that makes it easier for immigrants eager to contribute to our economy to enter the country legally.

If that’s not true — and he does want those things — then what in the world leads him to believe he can’t come up with an immigration policy that would have bipartisan appeal?

Why is it that, when we talk about immigration reform, we always talk about it in terms of amnesty? What to do with immigrants who are already in the country illegally is not actually the crux of immigration policy. That’s a question of law enforcement. The crux of immigration policy comes down to these questions: Who do we want in our country and how do we make it easy for those people to enter our country legally? Who do we want out and how do we keep them out? Surely we can agree that we want hard-working, law-abiding people who are eager to contribute to society in — and we want criminals, terrorists and other antisocial individuals out. But when’s the last time we’ve even talked about immigration policy in those terms? That’s the conversation we need to have.

Question for voters: Why would you vote for someone who repeatedly tells you he can’t do the job?

UK Pound Paring Earlier Losses on US Data

DDDD
UK pound is paring earlier losses against the US dollar right now, thanks to positive data in the United States, and a return to some level of risk appetite. Manufacturing improved more than expected, and US stocks are gaining right now, lending support to the sterling.


While UK pound is still down on the day, better news in the United States is helping the sterling regain some of its strength. Earlier, a lot of the focus was on the eurozone data that indicates that the 17-nation currency region might be headed for recession — or that it is already in a recession. This news sparked risk aversion and sent high beta currencies lower.

Sterling is getting some help now, though, with a cautious return to risk appetite. UK pound is off today’s earlier lows against the greenback, with the support of higher equities. Against the euro, the pound retains the upper hand, gaining as the situation in the eurozone continues to disappoint many. With talk of recession, and with concerns about sovereign debt still uppermost, it is little surprise that the pound is stronger against the euro.

At 16:19 GMT GBP/USD has almost caught up on the day, at 1.6024, just barely below the open at 1.6025. EUR/GBP is still lower at 0.8316, down from the open at 0.8338.

UK Pound Higher Against Greenback, Aussie

DDDD
UK pound is finding some strength today against the US dollar and the Australian dollar. Sterling is rising against the greenback as risk appetite makes an appearance, and gaining against the Aussie as the news about China continues to weigh on the Down Under currency.


UK pound has been struggling recently, thanks in large part to an unpopular budget announced by George Osborne. Concerns about the fact that the budget cuts spending, as well as taxes, are weighing as it appears that there won’t be much to help stimulate the economy.

Today, though, sterling is seeing some success. While the British currency is losing ground to the euro, it is gaining against the US dollar. Greenback is under pressure today as gold prices bounce back, and as a measure of risk appetite returns. This general risk appetite is helping the UK pound.

Against the Aussie, the pound is getting help from the fact that China is showing signs of slowing growth. Australia is a major trading partner with China, and with Chinese demand in doubt, the Australian dollar is pulling back, leaving room for the sterling to gain.

At 14:16 GMT GBP/USD is at 1.5837, up from the open at 1.5818. EUR/GBP is up to 0.8352, up from the open at 0.8342. GBP/AUD is gaining, moving up to 1.5258 from the open at 1.5209.

UK Pound Drops on Government Borrowing

DDDD
UK pound is struggling today, dropping on the latest figures related to government borrowing. As the government prepares to share its new budget, it’s clear that there isn’t going to be much room for stimulus. The news has the sterling heading lower against the euro and the US dollar today.
Borrowing figures for the British government show that, year-to-date in February, the UK government has borrowed 110 billion pounds. The news came as public sector borrowing increased by 15.2 billion pounds in February. This amounts to record borrowing for the UK government, and many are concerned about the ability of Britain’s policymakers to stimulate growth.
Indeed, some think that the recently released figures indicate that Britain’s situation is worse than many expected. And, with so much borrowing going on, there isn’t a lot that can be done in terms of offering tax breaks, or increasing spending, as ways to stimulate economic growth. It doesn’t look like there is a lot that can be done, and it may be that another round quantitative easing is in the works from the Bank of England.

This uncertainty, and the concern that the British economy might be in trouble, is contributing to a lower pound today. The pound is down against the euro and the US dollar on this news of weakness.

At 13:15 GMT GBP/USD is down to 1.5842 from the open at 1.5858. EUR/GBP is lower at 0.8350, down 0.8339.

GBP Fluctuates After Jobless Claims Climb

DDDD
The Great Britain pound fluctuated versus the US dollar today after a report showed that jobless claims rose last month more than was predicted. The currency was falling throughout the first half of the trading session, then rebounded and now fluctuates in a wide range.
Claims for unemployment benefits rose by 7,200 jobs in February, following the 7,000 increase in January. That was the 12th consecutive increase. The median forecast was a growth by 6,500 jobs. Unemployment rate remained stable at 8.4 percent.
GBP/USD traded at 1.5700 as of 12:09 GMT after opening at 1.5706. The daily maximum was 1.5743 and the minimum was 1.5648.

UK Pound Gains on Economic Data

DDDD
UK pound is gaining today, thanks in part to better than expected economic data out of Great Britain. Good news is helping the pound against the US dollar and against the euro. While there are still some hurdles for sterling, right now the outlook is pretty good.


UK trade deficit data came in under the estimate, showing a narrower than expected gap. Instead of 1.9 billion pounds of deficit, Britain saw 1.762 billion pounds. This indication that demand for exports is growing provided a bit of a boost to the UK pound. On top of that, RICS housing price data showed better than expected improvement as well. The good news continues to support the pound against the US dollar and the euro.

However, even with this good news, the pound has a long road ahead. There are plenty of concerns, including the slow economic growth in Britain. Austerity measures have been in effect under David Cameron‘s government, and the improved export picture might not do enough to boost the British economy — especially if exports slow again as a result of global economic slow.

At 14:17 GMT GBP/USD is higher at 1.5683, up from the open at 1.5635. EUR/GBP is lower at 0.8332, down from the open at 0.8409. GBP/JPY is higher at 129.1425, up from the open at 108.2400.
Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Report: Rubio to endorse on “Hannity” tonight; Update: Yep, Romney

DDDD
Drudge has busted out the red font for the occasion, which I guess makes this officially “news.” I wonder who it’ll be. The guy who just fired his campaign manager and started laying off staffers? The guy who struggles to win among electorates that aren’t heavily evangelical and who may well end up dropping his own home state? Or the guy with a prohibitive lead in delegates, who won Rubio’s home state in a landslide, and who’s better positioned than anyone else in America right now to make him vice president of the United States?


Here’s your thread if you’re watching. Although it’s a foregone conclusion that he’s backing Romney, this is news simply because Rubio’s star shines brighter than any other young Republican’s on the national landscape. It’s a signal to grassroots conservatives that the war is over and it’s time to fall in line; I wonder, in fact, if Romney didn’t coordinate the timing of it with Bush 41′s formal endorsement in order to hand the media a meme about Republican leaders past and future crowning the Republican leader of the present. While we wait, here’s audio of the left’s Romney-related outrage du jour: He told a “humorous” story on the radio today which involves his dad having closed down an American Motors plant in Michigan and moved it to Wisconsin. Ergo, he’s “out of touch” and hates the working man and thinks it’s hysterical when a state loses jobs, etc etc etc. Serious question: Is it worth even covering these gaffes anymore? He’s the all-but-certain nominee and he does in fact have a tin ear when it comes to innocuous comments that can easily be demagogued for class warfare purposes. If Democrats are going to use it against him later, it’s newsy. It’s increasingly tiresome, though, having to endure their theatrical pearl-clutching again and again, and of course it inadvertently helps them spread their message by circulating the soundbite they want people to hear. Time for a hiatus.

Video: Obama message to Planned Parenthood supporters oddly silent about key Planned Parenthood service

DDDD

Via the boss emeritus’s new Twitter aggregator Twitchy. I hate to say it but after watching this I think there might be something to the DNC’s “war on women” message. It’s inexplicable that the GOP wants to yank federal funding for this excellent health organization that provides cancer screenings and contraception and apparently nothing else. Can anyone blame the left for having a screeching, frothing-at-the-mouth fit whenever a conservative suggests having PP pay its own way? They’re all about protecting contraception and cancer screenings and nothing else.

I’m trying to decide whether I prefer his elephant-in-the-room silence here or his cynical dissembling about his true position on gay marriage. Look on the bright side, pro-choicers: He may be afraid to utter the A-word, venturing no closer than gassy euphemisms about “women’s health,” but at least he’ll admit to being on your side when pressed. If an abortion bill made it to his desk tomorrow, he’d say a few words in your favor and sign it. Whereas if a gay marriage bill made it to his desk, he’d … do what? Say a few words against it, then sign it? I prefer the comparative honesty of the silence-and-euphemisms approach. And hey, maybe he’ll be bolder in his next vid as we get closer to election day. Look for something vague about relief from “burdens.” Exit question: Do you suppose PP’s federal funding problem would be solved if it chose to no longer do “nothing else”?
Friday, March 23, 2012

The Ed Morrissey Show: Gov. Mitt Romney, Duane Patterson, Week in Review

DDDD

posted at 1:21 pm on March 23, 2012 by Ed Morrissey
Today, on the Ed Morrissey Show (special time: 2:45 pm ET), Governor Mitt Romney will join us for a few minutes as he campaigns in Louisiana.  I’ll ask him about Rick Santorum’s comments, the two-year anniversary of ObamaCare, how he will engage the conservative base, and perhaps a little on foreign policy, if we have the time.
After, we’ll take a look at the past week with Duane “Generalissimo” Patterson of the Hugh Hewitt Show. Duane and I will talk about the Governor’s comments, as well as the rest of the news this week. All of this and more — and stay tuned for a preview of tonight’s Hugh Hewitt Show.
The Ed Morrissey Show and its dynamic chatroom can be seen on the permanent TEMS page — be sure to join us, and don’t forget to keep up with the debate on my Facebook page, too!
Marizela Perez has been missing for a year.

Marizela’s case has a connection here at Hot Air, as she is the cousin of the Boss Emeritus, Michelle Malkin. Michelle is trying to spread the word through Facebook and Q13Fox/KCPQ in Seattle. We want to encourage prayers for Marizela’s family, and also try to reach anyone in the area who knows where Marizela might be and ask them to contact the police.
The search has its own website now, Find Marizela, for the latest in the efforts to bring Marizela home. There is also a fund for the family to keep the search efforts going. Be sure to check there and at Michelle’s site for further developments, and keep the family in your prayers.
America’s Most Wanted is now on the case, too.
Michelle has a new update on the case on the one-year anniversary:
    Exactly one year ago today, my 18-year-old cousin Marizela (known affectionately to her family and friends as “Emem” or “Mei”) Perez disappeared from the University of Washington campus in Seattle.
    She is still missing.
    Those words form on the computer screen with disembodied disbelief. But my heart is screaming:
    SHE IS STILL MISSING. WHY, DEAR GOD, WHY?!!!!!
    The not-knowing is every parent’s worst nightmare. It brought normal life to a standstill for Marizela’s parents, Edgar and Jasmin. And yet, they have to keep living and working and praying for their only daughter. Because that is what they must do. Their strength and dignity through all the suffering has been an inspiration to me.
    There have been no new developments in Emem’s case. No word from the police or the medical examiner’s office. No activity on her bank accounts or social media accounts.
    And no response from the Google legal department to our request for help in January.
Keep the prayers coming.

Obama team gaming out open support for gay marriage among top Democrats?

DDDD
Greg Sargent gets the leak from a Democratic strategist in the loop on what could best be described as focus-group testing to change Barack Obama’s stated values system.  In the 2008 campaign, Obama opposed gay marriage while supporting civil unions and decrying discrimination, a rather safe position even in the Democratic Party.  No one really believed it, though, and almost ever since taking office Obama and his team have talked about his “evolving” state of mind on the issue of gay marriage.  Now it seems that Obama wants to have party honchos test out his, er, theory of evolution:
    Obama’s top political advisers have held serious discussions with leading Democrats about the upsides and downsides of coming out for gay marriage before the fall election, a Democratic strategist who has discussed these matters directly with Obama’s campaign inner circle tells me.

    This does not mean that it will happen, and there are plenty of reasons to assume it won’t. Indeed, it would be political malpractice if Obama’s top advisers didn’t discuss every permutation and possibility, no matter how far fetched. However, the fact that it has been discussed seriously at high levels means it’s not out of the question.
Well, sure, it’s good to get the messaging right when laying out a statement on values.  On the other hand, Obama has already made a statement on these values — he supports the definition of marriage being between one man and one woman.  Have those values “evolved”?  If they have, then shouldn’t Obama be honest and say so?  This sounds like Obama has either changed his mind, wasn’t honest before, or cares less about the issue than in leveraging it for the best political outcome.
That’s what makes this sound so ridiculous:
    Those advisers are convinced that Obama will make this call based on his gut, and ultimately without regard to the fine-grained political analysis of the situation, the source says.
If that were true, he wouldn’t need to check with “leading Democrats,” or send his advisers out to do so.  Obama would prepare a statement explaining his position and its evolution, which he could do with his advisers alone.  Asking whether or not to do so isn’t making a “gut” call — it’s practically the polar opposite of a gut call.
Greg seems to think this could be a game changer among Democrats, who would be invigorated for the fall election “far beyond the gay community.”  That’s only true if one believes Obama actually changed his mind, “evolving” or otherwise.  Most people have assumed that Obama supports gay marriage personally, and that all of the talk about “evolving” thoughts were just a dodge for the sake of political expediency — and a focus-group-tested switch would just be more of the same.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

No ObamaCare anniversary celebration for Obama

DDDD

posted at 12:10 pm on March 21, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

In just two days, Barack Obama will celebrate the two-year anniversary of his signature legislative achievement as President — ObamaCare. Or rather, he won’t celebrate it.  In fact, according to The Hill, the White House won’t even bother defending the bill against its critics in the days leading up to the Supreme Court review of ObamaCare:

    President Obama will not mark the two-year anniversary of his signing of the healthcare law — which takes place days before the Supreme Court offers a decision on the constitutionality of his signature legislative achievement.

    Senior administration officials said on Tuesday that Obama will not be offering a vigorous public defense of the law, holding events or even making public remarks in the lead-up to the Supreme Court case.

Amie Parnes reports that White House officials labeled it a “faux milestone,” which might surprise some who also think of it as faux reform, too.  Others think it’s a missed opportunity:

    “It’s a little surprising that they’re not trying to get more out of it,” said Martin Sweet, an assistant professor of political science at Northwestern University. “They could go out to the American people, explain what’s happening and set themselves up for whatever happens.

    “They might be a little worried about the backlash,” Sweet said, adding that he thinks it is a miscalculation.

If they’re worried about a backlash, they’re almost exactly two years too late for that.

If the White House had confidence in its arguments at the Supreme Court, one would guess that they would use their media power to make that case to the public at the same time, especially in an election year.  I’d guess that they’re worried about having to use arguments about the mandate being a tax as justification for its constitutionality, and they don’t want to have to make that argument explicitly in public any more than they have to do so.  Otherwise, they may be hoping that the media doesn’t cover the substance of the arguments at the Supreme Court in order to play down the arguments of the plaintiffs who are suing to have it overturned.

Either way, this should make good grist for a campaign ad or two.  “Barack Obama hides on anniversary of ObamaCare” has a nice, punchy ring to it, doesn’t it?

Obama fundraising 28% off 2008 pace

DDDD

posted at 9:50 am on March 21, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Yesterday I noted that the latest fundraising numbers for Barack Obama came to $45 million, but that combined his fundraising with that of the DNC.   Politico breaks it down further to find that the actual total money raised for Obama by three different committees in February comes to $39.4 million — far off of the pace of his 2008 fundraising:

    Barack Obama is spending heavily to bring in money and relying more on big donors than he did in 2008, but his fundraising pace has slipped from his first presidential campaign, reports filed with the Federal Election Commission Tuesday show.

    Three Obama campaign committees, including two that have higher donor limits, brought in a combined $39.4 million last month.

    Compare that to February 2008, when Obama had one campaign committee, which was limited to smaller donations, but still raised $55 million.

That is a 28% drop in fundraising, even as Obama has set new records for fundraising events.  He had almost doubled the number of fundraisers Bush held in the 2004 campaign at this stage of his presidency, even before his six-event frenzy on Friday:

    Obama, who came into office bemoaning a broken electoral system, has proved surprisingly energetic at fundraising from wealthy donors and using his office to his political benefit in states that could decide his re-election.

    He’s attended 103 reelection fundraisers — about double the 52 such events Bush had attended at this point in 2004, according to tallies kept by CBS’s Mark Knoller. …

    And while Bush and his Cabinet members were slammed by Democrats for official travel to swing states before key elections, Obama has made more than 60 trips to swing states since taking office. His travel after his State of the Union address this year was exclusively to states potentially pivotal this fall: Iowa, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and Michigan.

Don’t forget that Obama also had some competition for Democratic contributors in February 2008, too.  Hillary Clinton raised $34 million, not much below what President Obama raised in a field all by himself last month.  Combined, that’s a drop of 55.7% in Democratic presidential fundraising in February, even with the frenetic — dare we say desperate — pace of fundraising by Obama.

That’s not to say that Obama won’t get plenty of cash.  He has $91 million in the bank, and several months more of fundraising to go before the convention.  But that’s far, far off the presumed pace of one billion dollars that Team Obama expected to set, and it’s a pretty good indicator of enthusiasm for another Democratic term in the White House this term.
 

Royal Thai Air Force to Drop Water to Help Ease Haze

DDDD
CHIANGRAI TIMES – In Chiang Rai, the smog problem was also very serious, with the amount of small dust particles touching 431.6 micrograms per cubic metre of air.

Chiang Rai Governor Thanin Supasan said the provincial government was now securing the help of the Royal Thai Air Force in combating the smog.

“Two RTAF planes will be deployed to sprinkle water in the sky over Chiang Rai so as to ease the problem,” he said.

Water-sprinkling efforts are expected to help at least a little, as rainfall last week led to a significant fall in smog intensity in the North.


RTAF deputy chief-of-staff Air Marshal Thongchai Chalamket said the aircraft could each carry about 3,700 litres of water per flight, which was sufficient to cover an area of more than one rai.

“We can arrange about 12 flights per day,” he said, adding that such planes were normally used for extinguishing forest fires.

The smog has now hit most areas of the North. The Pollution Control Department said the level of small dust particles now ranged between 111 and 432.6 micrograms per cubic metre in the region.

Chiang Rai’s Mae Sai district was found blanketed by 441.6 micrograms/cubic metres (ug/m3) of fine particle dust for a second day in a row Tuesday, while six other provinces suffered from PM10 dust above the safety level of 120 ug/m3, the Pollution Control Department said Tuesday.



Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra expressed concerns over situation at the Cabinet meeting yesterday and instructed Interior, Agriculture and Science ministries to have a team visit the affected areas and launch a campaign to stop fires from being lit outdoors and implement harsher punishment for violators.

Thailand to Strengthen Trade with Canada

DDDD
CHIANGRAI TIMES – Thailand is planning a major pitch to open free trade talks with Canada this week, as Prime Minister Stephen Harper begins his second Asia trip in three months.

Thailand will sweeten its offer by positioning itself as a comfortable and safe entry point from which Canada could make further inroads throughout South Asia — raising the potential of a broader trade deal with the region’s emerging, 10-country bloc, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Thailand is planning a major pitch to open free trade talks with Canada this week, as Prime Minister Stephen Harper begins his second Asia trip in three months

China is not an ASEAN member, so any economic gains with the bloc would represent a significant broadening of the Harper government’s pro-Asia trade aspirations.

Harper, who made his second trip to China in January, has said increasing trade with Asia is a major economic priority after a series of economic hurdles soured relations with Canada’s largest trading partner, the United States.

“It’s understandable that Canada has to diversify and be less dependent on the U.S. market. We welcome the realization,” Srirat Rastapana, director general of Thailand’s Department of Trade Negotiations, told The Canadian Press in an interview.

“This year would be an important year that we can lay the foundation for a stronger relationship with Canada. We welcome Canada’s participation in ASEAN forums. We think Canada could be an invaluable partner for ASEAN.”

Srirat said Canada and Thailand will explore how to promote and enhance trade and investment.

“We (will) also touch on the possibility of preparing a kind of a joint study, scoping for the free-trade agreement,” she said.

Earlier this month, Canada and Japan released their own joint study on the possibility of a trade agreement that concluded “there remains much untapped potential” in their relationship.

The study predicted that a trade deal would lead to gains in gross domestic product of $4.4 billion to $4.9 billion for Japan and between $3.8 billion to $9 billion for Canada.

Harper will travel to Japan after his stop in Thailand, before finishing his three-country tour in South Korea.

Canada has modest trade with Thailand, with exports of $839 million and imports of $2.7 billion in 2011.

Srirat said there is potential for greater co-operation in energy, food and green technology.

Last fall, Canada and ASEAN signed a joint declaration that pledged to promote trade and investment.

In a wide-ranging interview from Bangkok’s trade ministry, Srirat said doing business with Thailand would open doors for Canada with other ASEAN countries. Thailand, she said, can also help Canada make progress with China and India.

“We can be a gateway, we can be partners,” she said. “We can work with other countries, the emerging markets in Asia. Thailand has several free trade agreements at the level of ASEAN. Now we are in the process of concluding our negotiations with India.”

ASEAN leaders are committed to establishing an economic community by 2015 that would allow for a freer movement of goods, services, labour and capital among member countries.

Srirat said Canada has a lot of catching up to do in the region, and Thailand could help.

“Canada, could in fact, be the latecomer because your private sector has to adjust to the new environment, which is more complicated,” she said.

“Getting to know the environment and the culture is the basic for any business to start in a new country or region.”

Unfamiliar laws and cultural practices make setting up shop in the region a challenging experience, said Toronto-born John Casella, president of the Thai-Canada Chamber of Commerce.

“Thailand is actually an easier place to do business once you’ve got through the learning curve of getting through the Thai bureaucracy,” Casella, an accountant and tax consultant, said in an interview.

“Canadians are a little bit more naive to certain things. Things that might be taken for granted in terms of how the courts might work, or how commercial practices are, I think leave Canadians at a disadvantage.”

An investment now could pay off later for Canadian companies, said Casella, because huge growth is predicted for ASEAN in the coming decade.

“Stephen Harper has expressed more interest in doing business with Asia. It’s well long overdue,” said Casella. “As a Canadian living in this part of the world, I’m excited that Canada is starting to wake up to that fact.

“There are very good opportunities for Canadians, because they are well received in this part of the world, more so than some other countries.

“Our neighbours to the south do not always make the best friends in terms of the ease of doing business.”

Harper was supposed to visit Thailand last fall, but his trip was cancelled due to severe flooding in the country.

Casella said he hopes Harper’s trip helps raise Asia’s profile in Canada as a business destination, because that is sorely needed.

He pointed to a poll last year by the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada that showed ambivalence towards the region. Only 26 per cent of respondents agreed that Canada was part of the Asia-Pacific region, compared with 30 per cent in 2008.

“With the way that the economy is going and developments being made here, it’s in Canadians’ best interest to be more aware of opportunities here.”

Jean Chretien led the last official visit by a prime minister to Thailand in 1997, when he brought along a Team Canada trade delegation.

“If the Canadian prime minister waits another 15 years for the next visit, I think some huge opportunities will be lost,” said Casella.

 
© Copyright 2010-2011 Washinton Post All Rights Reserved.
Template Design by Herdiansyah Hamzah | Published by Borneo Templates | Powered by Blogger.com.