Friday, April 27, 2012

GBP/USD Falls After Greek Bondholders Suffer Losses

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The Great Britain pound slipped versus the US dollar as investors shunned European assets after private holders of Greek debt suffered losses on Greece’s bonds. The currency was still up against the euro and the Japanese yen.

Greece used collective action clauses to increase participation of investors in the bond swap program. As a result, the International Swaps & Derivatives Association announced that “a Restructuring Credit Event has occurred with respect to The Hellenic Republic (Greece)”. This ruling triggered payouts on about $3 billion of default insurance.

The pound fell against the dollar also because the US currency was too strong after US nonfarm payrolls came out better than expected. As for Britain’s fundamentals, the data was mixed. The Bank of England decided on March 8 to keep its main interest rate at 0.5 percent and asset purchase program at £325 billion.

GBP/USD slumped from 1.5827 to close at 1.5670, while the intraday minimum of 1.5661 was lowest since February 23. At the same time, EUR/GBP was down from 0.8380 to 0.8370 (the daily low was 0.8344) and GBP/JPY was up from 129.06 to 129.22.

UK Pound Gains against the US Dollar

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The UK pound is rising against the US dollar, enjoying gains not seen for more than a week. The latest interest rate decision by the Bank of England is to keep it the same. Additionally, the Bank of England is going to keep its debt-purchase program on hold for now.

The news that the Bank of England doesn’t feel it needs to continue with its quantitative easing program is welcome to many Forex traders, and is providing a measure of support for the sterling. However, even though it appears that members of the Monetary Policy Committee believe that the economy is doing well enough to preclude more easing, they still aren’t comfortable enough with growth to raise interest rates from their record low. The news is positive enough, though, to help the pound against the US dollar.


For now, the pound is lower against the euro in Forex trading. The ECB kept its benchmark rate the same as well. What many Forex traders are really waiting for, though, is the news of the Greek deal. If everything goes according to plan, the euro should get a boost against the pound. If there are hiccups, though, and if the Greek debt swap doesn’t happen, the sterling could gain against the euro.

At 14:11 GMT GBP/USD is higher at 1.5795, up from the open at 1.5741. EUR/GBP is higher at 0.8387, up from the open at 0.8353.

UK Pound Declines against US Dollar

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UK pound is declining against the US dollar today, thanks to general risk aversion weighing on high beta currencies, as well as disappointing economic data out of Great Britain. Against the euro, sterling is struggling as well, although there have been swings between gains and losses.

The lastest UK housing data has been disappointing, showing that February housing prices were down 0.5% from the previous month. The news is discouraging to many, who are looking for signs of an improving UK economy. Retail sales data has also disappointed recently. With these signs of economic slowing, it is little surprise that the pound is struggling.

However, it’s not just British economic data weighing on the pound — especially against the US dollar. The UK pound is also declining as risk aversion sets in. Concerns about what’s next in the Greek drama (debt swaps are scheduled for later this week) have Forex traders reluctant to favor high beta currencies. Even with this trouble, though, the pound isn’t able to log solid gains against the euro. Instead, EUR/GBP remains around the same level as at open, occasionally dipping lower, or moving slightly higher.

At 15:47 GMT EUR/GBP is at 0.8332, very slightly higher than the open at 0.8331. GBP/USD is lower at 1.5745, down from the open at 1.5865. GBP/JPY is also lower at 127.1740, down from the open at 129.3925.

GBP/USD Falls After Greek Bondholders Suffer Losses

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The Great Britain pound slipped versus the US dollar as investors shunned European assets after private holders of Greek debt suffered losses on Greece’s bonds. The currency was still up against the euro and the Japanese yen.

Greece used collective action clauses to increase participation of investors in the bond swap program. As a result, the International Swaps & Derivatives Association announced that “a Restructuring Credit Event has occurred with respect to The Hellenic Republic (Greece)”. This ruling triggered payouts on about $3 billion of default insurance.

The pound fell against the dollar also because the US currency was too strong after US nonfarm payrolls came out better than expected. As for Britain’s fundamentals, the data was mixed. The Bank of England decided on March 8 to keep its main interest rate at 0.5 percent and asset purchase program at £325 billion.

GBP/USD slumped from 1.5827 to close at 1.5670, while the intraday minimum of 1.5661 was lowest since February 23. At the same time, EUR/GBP was down from 0.8380 to 0.8370 (the daily low was 0.8344) and GBP/JPY was up from 129.06 to 129.22.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Pound Falls as GDP Shrinks

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The Great Britain pound fell today after a government report showed that the UK economy unexpectedly declined in the first quarter of this year, reducing appeal of the nation’s currency.
Britain’s gross domestic product dropped 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2012, following the drop by 0.3 percent in the previous quarter. Traders were frustrated as analysts predicted a 0.1 percent increase. Gross value added grew 0.2 percent in February on an annual basis, while an advance by 0.6 percent was predicted. The worse-than-expected data added incentive for the Bank of England to ease its monetary policy and reduced demand for the pound. Improving sentiment about the situation in Europe was also negative for the UK currency.
GBP/USD was down from 1.6142 to 1.6085 and GBP/JPY dropped from 131.23 to 130.57 as of 9:21 GMT today.

Rand Gains for Second Day on European Bonds & US Corporate Profits

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The South African rand gained today for the second day after yields on European bonds fell, easing nervousness about Europe’s troubles, and as US corporate profits were above forecasts.
Falling yields for Spanish, Italian and Dutch bonds gave investors hope that Europe may yet emerge from its financial crisis. Apple reported that it almost doubled its profit in the second fiscal quarter as demand for iPhone grew in China. All in all, market sentiment was good today and that allowed riskier currency of South Africa to advance.
USD/ZAR fell from 7.7910 to 7.7590 as of 8:49 GMT today, while the daily low of 7.7480 was the lowest since April 4.
If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the South African Rand, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Aussie Goes Down as CPI Growth Below Expectations

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The Australian dollar fell today as a government report showed that nation’s consumer prices rose in the last quarter far slower that was anticipated by market analysts, triggering speculation about an interest rate cut.
Australia’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012, while much bigger growth by 0.7 percent was predicted by economists. The trimmed mean CPI (core CPI) increase 0.3 percent, while forecasters said that it would stay at 0.6 percent as in the the fourth quarter of 2011. The slowing inflation added incentive for the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce interest rates. The problems in Europe also reduce demand for the Aussie, as well as other currencies with higher yield.
AUD/USD fell from 1.0321 to 1.0310 as of 14:35 GMT today, following the drop to 1.0246 — the lowest level since April 11. AUD/JPY was down from 83.76 to 82.85 before trading at 73.68.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Aussie Goes Down as CPI Growth Below Expectations

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The Australian dollar fell today as a government report showed that nation’s consumer prices rose in the last quarter far slower that was anticipated by market analysts, triggering speculation about an interest rate cut.
Australia’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012, while much bigger growth by 0.7 percent was predicted by economists. The trimmed mean CPI (core CPI) increase 0.3 percent, while forecasters said that it would stay at 0.6 percent as in the the fourth quarter of 2011. The slowing inflation added incentive for the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce interest rates. The problems in Europe also reduce demand for the Aussie, as well as other currencies with higher yield.
AUD/USD fell from 1.0321 to 1.0310 as of 14:35 GMT today, following the drop to 1.0246 — the lowest level since April 11. AUD/JPY was down from 83.76 to 82.85 before trading at 73.68.

Japanese Yen Mixed Today

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Japanese yen is mixed today as Forex traders look for direction. There is a lot to think about today, in terms of news and forecasts, and currencies are part of the confusion. Yen has slipped against the euro after choppy trading, but is higher against the pound and the dollar.

Japanese yen is down against the euro, which is gaining ground on the enthusiasm surrounding a solid Dutch bond auction — in spite of the recent resignation of Mark Rutte and the collapse of the government in the Netherlands. However, yen is higher against the dollar and the pound as Forex traders and others show a measure of caution.
US stocks continue to gain cautiously, and European stocks remain mixed. There is a lack of direction in the financial markets today, and that is translating to the currency market. It is uncertain, however, how much longer the yen will remain higher against the dollar. The recent strength of the yen has Japanese lawmakers concerned, and pressure is building for the Bank of Japan to take matters into its own hands and intervene to weaken the yen.
At 14:06 GMT USD/JPY is lower at 81.0785, down from the open at 81.1900. EUR/JPY is higher at 107.0030, up from the open at 106.8145. GBP/JPY is lower at 130.8140, down from the open at 130.9550.

Euro Rangebound in Forex Trading

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Euro is mostly rangebound today, making small gains against the US dollar, after a Dutch bond auction proved reasonably successful. The euro has been struggling lately due to concerns about the political stability of eurozone countries, as well as continued worries about Spain.

Earlier, a bond auction in the Netherlands was deemed a success. There had been some questions about the bond auction, since the resignation of Prime Minister Mark Rutte and the collapse of the Dutch government. With politicians unable to agree on budgetary measures, the government is at an impasse and an early general election looks like it will be called.
The bond auction out of the Netherlands, though, is steadying the euro somewhat in Forex trading. It appears that the Netherlands is likely to maintain its AAA rating — one of the few eurozone countries that still has such a rating. However, the euro is far from out of the woods.
Concerns about Spain, as well as worries about other countries with sovereign debt problems, are still extent. And, of course, there is uncertainty in France, where Nicolas Sarkozy appears to be losing the presidential race.
At 13:07 GMT EUR/USD has started to break higher at 1.3166, up from the open at 1.3157. EUR/JPY is lower at 106.7410, down from the open at 106.8145. EUR/GBP remains at the same level as the open, at 0.8158.

Monday, April 23, 2012

US Dollar Index Gains as Traders Consider Consolidation

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Yesterday’s buoyant tone and risk appetite have receded, leaving the US dollar to log gains against some currencies right now. The dollar index is heading higher, as the greenback gains against some of its major counterparts, especially the euro and the yen.


Yesterday, better news out of Europe, combined with an enthusiasm for stocks, led to a lower US dollar. The dollar index dropped below 80 as many traders looked for better yields. Today, though, many have taken a bit of a step back. Stock traders appear to be in consolidation mode after yesterday’s spectacular rally, and there is once again some focus on the eurozone and its problems.

Right now, though, a higher US dollar is putting downward pressure on commodities. Gold prices are lower today, along with oil prices. Greenback is showing strength against the euro and franc, as well as against the yen right now, which is boosting the dollar index performance. This is significant, as the US dollar is modestly lower against the pound today, and mostly flat against the Canadian dollar.

This mixed performance by the US dollar isn’t stopping the dollar index from rising, though. The gains made by the dollar against the euro and the yen are significant enough to keep the dollar index in positive territory.

At 13:08 GMT the dollar index is at 79.827, up from the open at 79.570. EUR/USD is down to 1.3072 from the open at 1.3126. USD/JPY is up to 81.3515 from the open at 80.8430. GBP/USD is up to 1.5977 from the open at 1.5926. USD/CHF is up to 0.9199 from the open at 0.9152. USD/CAD is mostly flat at 0.9902 from the open at 0.9903.

Bank of Canada Comments Send Loonie Higher

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Right now, the Canadian dollar is seeing gains against nearly all of its major counterparts as the Bank of Canada comes out sounding a bit hawkish. Loonie is finding support in general risk appetite as well, and receiving some help from higher oil prices.

Everything seems to be going right for the Canadian dollar today. The BOC came out and said that putting a stop to stimulus measures might be a priority, and many are taking that to mean that an interest rate hike is on the way. In a low-yield environment, any currency connected to an interest rate hike is likely to be favored in the currency market.

On top of the seemingly hawkish comments from the Bank of Canada, there are also other forms of support for the loonie in forex trading. Risk appetite in general is on the rise, as demand in the Spanish bond auction allays some economic fears. The International Monetary Fund has improved its forecast for the global economy, including a boost for the US economy, which is a major trading partner for Canada. Higher oil prices are also helping the loonie today, since oil is a major export for Canada.

At 14:24 GMT USD/CAD is down to 0.9875 from the open at 0.9993. GBP/CAD is lower at 1.5739, down from the 1.5890. EUR/CAD is down to 1.2966 fromt he open at 1.3120.

Euro Lower Against Many Counterparts

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Euro is lower against many of its counterparts today, dropping as concerns about the European debt situation continue to dominate the news. Spain is expected to auction off bonds today, and there are concerns about climbing yields. Additionally, there are expectations of a drop in investor confidence in Germany.

Concerns about the eurozone are dominating news today as Forex traders consider that the sovereign debt situation might be contagious. Worries about the spread of the crisis are keeping the euro lower against most of its major counterparts. It’s also not helping that, in Germany, investor confidence appears to be waning.

For now, the ECB isn’t interested in bailing out Spain. The Spanish Prime Minster, Mariano Rajoy, says that Spain will employ large cuts, but it might not be enough. Besides, large cuts from the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy could slow eurozone economic growth as a whole, and there are already recession fears.

It is little surprise that the eurozone is struggling, and that the euro is struggling as well. The 17-nation currency is down against the US dollar and the UK pound, as well as struggling against many other currencies today.

At 13:27 GMT EUR/USD is lower at 1.3131, down from the open at 1.3141. EUR/GBP is down to 0.8237 from the open at 0.8266. EUR/CHF is lower at 1.2016, down from the open at 1.2018.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Obama threatens veto of highway bill over Keystone XL pipeline

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Time for another showdown over energy policy.  House Republicans included a provision in the new highway bill extension (five months) that would force the Obama administration to approve the complete construction of the Keystone XL pipeline.  The White House reacted about as well as one would imagine:

The White House on Tuesday threatened to veto House legislation to extend transportation programs because it contains GOP language that mandates approval of the Keystone XL oil sands pipeline.

The House is slated to vote Wednesday on the bill that keeps the transportation programs funded through September, the end of the fiscal year.

It would take permitting of the proposed Alberta-to-Texas pipeline away from the State Department and task the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission with approving the project.

“Because this bill circumvents a longstanding and proven process for determining whether cross-border pipelines are in the national interest by mandating the permitting of the Keystone XL pipeline before a new route has been submitted and assessed, the president’s senior advisers would recommend that he veto this legislation,” the White House said in a formal “statement of administration policy” Tuesday afternoon.

A “proven process”?  Congress has had to push the Obama administration into action more than once to get the approval in place.  They forced Obama to issue a denial at the beginning of the year, although Obama later had to lobby the Senate to keep the rejection in place.  When that turned out to be unpopular, Obama began talking up the pipeline, ostentatiously “approving” a part of the pipeline construction that didn’t need federal approval anyway.

Time is running out on American interest in Canada’s oil-sands product.  The media in the US didn’t cover the so-called “Three Amigos” summit, but Investors Business Daily kept up with the Canadian papers, which did cover Stephen Harper’s warnings to Obama on obstructionism over Keystone:

Energy has become a searing rift between the U.S. and Canada and threatens to leave the U.S. without its top energy supplier.

The Winnipeg Free Press reported that Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper warned Obama the U.S. will have to pay market prices for its Canadian oil after Obama’s de facto veto of the Keystone XL pipeline. Canada is preparing to sell its oil to China.

Until now, NAFTA had shielded the U.S. from having to pay global prices for Canadian oil. That’s about to change.

In other words, just as the White House has to come up with a strategy for dealing with increasing prices at the pump, they’re actively ensuring that prices will go up even higher.  That’s not exactly smart, nor is it “smart power.”

On the other hand, perhaps the highway bill should be vetoed — but not because of the Keystone XL issue:

The Republican House of Representatives may soon follow the Democratic Senate and give the IRS the power to confiscate your passport on mere suspicion of owing taxes. There’s no place like home, comrade.

‘America, Love It Or Leave It” might be an obsolete slogan if the “bipartisan transportation bill” that just passed the Senate is approved by the House and becomes law. Contained within the suspiciously titled “Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act,” or “MAP 21,” is a provision that gives the Internal Revenue Service the power to keep U.S. citizens from leaving the country if it finds that they owe $50,000 or more in unpaid taxes — no court ruling necessary.

It is hard to imagine any law more reminiscent of the Soviet Union that America toppled, or its Eastern Bloc slave satellites.

Passports only get confiscated by courts, usually only when a flight risk is established.  Do we want bureaucrats making those decisions with no recourse to normal due process, especially over civil issues of tax bills?  If the IRS thinks that a taxpayer in arrears is a flight risk, let them go to a judge to get an order for passport seizure, a process that at least affords a citizen the right to challenge the accusation and defend himself before a disinterested third party.  This is a bad idea, and House Republicans should insist that it get stripped from the highway bill before sending it to the President.

CBS/NYT poll shows dead heat between Obama, Romney at 46%

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So much for that eight-point lead in the secretly-weighted CNN poll, eh?  CBS gives us a sneak peek at their first general-election poll of the season, in partnership with the New York Times, and finds a dead heat in the mid-40s:

Mitt Romney has closed the gap with President Obama among registered voters, a CBS News/New York Times poll released Wednesday found, putting the former Massachusetts governor in a dead heat with the president for the White House.

Mr. Obama and Romney each received support from 46 percent of registered voters when asked who they would vote for if the election were held today. In March, a CBS News/New York Times survey found that Mr. Obama held a slight advantage over Romney of 47 percent to 44 percent.

Normally, I’d take a poll from a media outlet and thoroughly vet the internals before posting an analysis.  CBS didn’t provide the internals of their new poll, however, so we’ll have to make do with their review of the data.  The topline results match what most other pollsters are finding, within the margin of error.  In fact, it matches what CNN found in their poll of general-population adults — at least before they turned a 48/47 result for Obama into a 53/41 without any explanation whatsoever.

The key here is that Obama is only drawing 46% as the incumbent and the unchallenged Democratic contender in the race.  Romney only gets to 46% too, but as the internals show, there is still plenty of upside from the end of the primary fight:

Following the end of Santorum’s bid for the presidency, Republican primary voters have rallied behind Romney, with 54 percent saying they want him to lead Republicans into the fall campaign season. That’s a significant difference from March, when only 30 percent wanted him to be the nominee.

Gingrich was preferred among 20 percent of Republican primary voters; Paul received support from 12 percent. Nine percent picked “someone else.” When asked if Santorum should have suspended his campaign, 63 percent of those polled said yes; 30 percent said no.

Still, many Republicans expressed lukewarm feelings toward Romney, with 40 percent of primary voters having reservations about him compared with 33 percent saying they supported him “enthusiastically.” In January, the last time a CBS News/New York Times survey asked primary voters about Romney, 28 percent said they supported him enthusiastically and 38 percent had reservations.

We’re at 46/46 without having hit a real “honeymoon” stage for Romney after the practical end of the Republican fight.  That’s bad news for Team Obama, especially while facing a slowing economy and rising gas prices, and having nothing to offer but Buffett Rules and nostalgia.

We do have the internals for the Reuters/Ipsos poll from yesterday, and they’re pretty much nonsense.  The poll shows Obama up four over Romney, 47/43, but that’s with a stated D/R/I of 47/38/15.  That’s only predictive if one believes that Democrats will gain eight points over their 2008 turnout, and have two points more of a lead over Republicans than that election provided, according to CNN’s exit polls.  Without counting the leaners, the D/R/I is still an odd 29/22/49.

In either case, having a lead within the MoE on a skew of this proportion should also have the White House worried.  But there is one key indicator that looks even worse for Obama, which is his approval ratings.  They peg Obama approval at 49/49, which is attributable largely to the sample skew, and is hardly impressive.  But his approval among independents is a disastrous 37/57, down from 42/54 in March and 45/44 in January.  He’s crashing and burning in the middle, where Obama won the 2008 election.

Great news: Senate record for shirking responsibility to continue through 2012 elections

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Whew. For a while there, we thought that the streak might be coming to an end:

Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) bowed to pressure from fellow Democrats on Tuesday and postponed a committee vote on a 2013 budget resolution, most likely until after the November elections.

Conrad on Wednesday will begin a committee markup of a resolution based on the Bowles-Simpson deficit recommendations, but told reporters there is no date scheduled on which the markup vote would occur.

“This is the wrong time to vote in committee; this is the wrong time to vote on the floor,” he said. “I don’t think we will be prepared to vote before the election.”

At least Democrats are consistent.  It has been the wrong time to vote for a budget resolution in the Senate — in committee and on the floor — for 1,085 days now. That’s been true when Democrats had 59 votes as well as 53 votes, as they do now.  To borrow from James Taylor: Winter, spring, summer or fall … all Harry Reid has to do is call … and the budget won’t be there, yeah … you’ve got a stall.

Conrad plans to hold “markup” sessions without votes, but Keith Hennessey says that markup sessions without votes are just meetings:

I imagine Chairman Conrad will receive favorable press coverage for proposing the bipartisan Bowles-Simpson recommendations.  If he doesn’t use his power as Chairman to force a vote, however, then his proposal is little more than an interesting debate topic.

Unless I’m missing something Chairman Conrad is not marking up a budget resolution tomorrow.  He is instead convening the committee for a discussion.  He will lay down the Bowles-Simpson numbers as his own and everyone will talk.  Then he will adjourn the meeting tomorrow without any votes, without any date to reconvene, without any deadline or forcing action for private bipartisan negotiations he hopes will then occur but for which he has low expectations of success.

It’s not a markup if you don’t vote.

The job of a Member of Congress is to vote on legislation, not to talk about legislation.  Talk is sometimes helpful but If Members of Congress are not voting they’re not doing their job.

As Hennessey also points out, it’s not just that Senate Democrats aren’t doing their job.  They’re violating the law.  The Congressional Budget Act requires both chambers to produce budget resolutions by April 15th, a date chosen for obvious reasons.  American taxpayers don’t get the option of simply skipping their taxes until the “right time” to do them magically appears, and yet Senate Democrats have chosen to flout the law despite controlling the upper chamber and having a fellow Democrat in the White House.

This isn’t leadership.  It’s not stewardship.  It’s a flaccid, passive-aggressive, three-year-long streak of political cowardice, a disgrace that Conrad will carry into his retirement as his political legacy.

Sunday, April 15, 2012

Congresswoman lets the air out of the inflated student loan industry, says there’s no reason for it

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In a radio interview today, North Carolina Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx recounted the way she worked her way through college and said “there’s no reason” for students to graduate with $80,000 or $200,000 in student-loan debt.

ThinkProgress flagged the interview as though it somehow reflected poorly on Foxx, but I really fail to see how she’s not offering a hopeful message. She’s essentially just saying, “Hey kids, you don’t have to take on the crushing burden of student-loan debt! You have options.” Who doesn’t want to hear that?

True, college tuition is higher than ever — but that’s largely because the government pumps so much money into higher education, through loans and other programs. Hate to break it to future college students, but college tuition prices are likely to continue to go up. Through Obamacare, the administration completely took over the student loan industry. That’s a recipe for the creation of the same kind of bubble that eventually burst into the housing crisis.

Admittedly, it takes a delayed-gratification mindset to work through school. Alternatively, it might take humility to choose a school you can afford over the dream school you can’t afford. It’ll be worth it, though, when you graduate debt-free or with a debt you’ll actually be able to repay.

Occasionally, you’ll hear a person talk about student-loan debt as though the borrower had no choice but to take out the loan. Maybe life didn’t turn out the way the borrower expected. Maybe he entered the workforce when the economy was poor and doesn’t have a job with the kind of salary he expected. Those circumstances cause the borrower to look back on the decision he made to take out the loan and to try to avoid responsibility for it. Just because he thought he’d be able to pay it off when he took it out and now finds it’s not as easy as he thought, though, doesn’t mean he still didn’t decide to take out the loan. When you take out a loan, you are responsible to pay it back. That is the nature of a loan.

Nothing is more empowering in life than the realization that you can take responsibility for your own decisions — and change your decisions in the future if you don’t like the consequences of the decisions you’ve made up to this point! Why don’t liberals won’t individuals to experience that kind of liberation and empowerment?


Obama: OK, now immigration reform really is my top priority

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Remember when Barack Obama said he was going to tackle immigration reform in his first year in office? At the time, he had majorities in both the House and the Senate. Now, though, he doesn’t — and, while he deeply cares about the issue and wants to do something to fix a broken system, he just can’t. That darn Congress — only half of which is Republican, mind you — won’t let him.

He says he’ll make it his top priority post-reelection, though — but no promises that he’ll accomplish anything. He’ll still have to deal with those obstructive Republicans!

“I can promise that I will try to do it in the first year of my second term,” Obama said in an interview with Univision set to air on Sunday. “I want to try this year. The challenge we’ve got on immigration reform is very simple. I’ve got a majority of Democrats who are prepared to vote for it, and I’ve got no Republicans who are prepared to vote for it. …

“So what we need is a change either of Congress or we need Republicans to change their mind, and I think this has to be an important debate during – throughout the country. …

“And so I’m just going to keep on pushing as hard as I can, and what I’m going to be encouraging is the Latino community continue to ask every member of Congress where they stand on these issues, but the one thing that I think everybody needs to understand is that this is something I care deeply about. It’s personal to me, and I will do everything that I can to try to get it done. But ultimately I’m going to need Congress to help me.”

Let me translate all of that for you: “I’m President Obama and I’m ineffective. I can’t do what I want to do. My hands are tied.”

Why — if the president really wants to accomplish immigration reform — would he predict gridlock before he even proposes his preferred immigration policy? That’s no way to inspire those who disagree with him to work with him. I thought it was a sign of leadership to be able to obtain buy-in and inspire consensus. In fact, I seem to remember that Obama once ran for president on his ability to do just that.

He thinks there’s no common ground on immigration? I’ll take that to mean he doesn’t want the law to be respected, he doesn’t want secure borders and he doesn’t want an efficient immigration system that makes it easier for immigrants eager to contribute to our economy to enter the country legally.

If that’s not true — and he does want those things — then what in the world leads him to believe he can’t come up with an immigration policy that would have bipartisan appeal?

Why is it that, when we talk about immigration reform, we always talk about it in terms of amnesty? What to do with immigrants who are already in the country illegally is not actually the crux of immigration policy. That’s a question of law enforcement. The crux of immigration policy comes down to these questions: Who do we want in our country and how do we make it easy for those people to enter our country legally? Who do we want out and how do we keep them out? Surely we can agree that we want hard-working, law-abiding people who are eager to contribute to society in — and we want criminals, terrorists and other antisocial individuals out. But when’s the last time we’ve even talked about immigration policy in those terms? That’s the conversation we need to have.

Question for voters: Why would you vote for someone who repeatedly tells you he can’t do the job?

UK Pound Paring Earlier Losses on US Data

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UK pound is paring earlier losses against the US dollar right now, thanks to positive data in the United States, and a return to some level of risk appetite. Manufacturing improved more than expected, and US stocks are gaining right now, lending support to the sterling.


While UK pound is still down on the day, better news in the United States is helping the sterling regain some of its strength. Earlier, a lot of the focus was on the eurozone data that indicates that the 17-nation currency region might be headed for recession — or that it is already in a recession. This news sparked risk aversion and sent high beta currencies lower.

Sterling is getting some help now, though, with a cautious return to risk appetite. UK pound is off today’s earlier lows against the greenback, with the support of higher equities. Against the euro, the pound retains the upper hand, gaining as the situation in the eurozone continues to disappoint many. With talk of recession, and with concerns about sovereign debt still uppermost, it is little surprise that the pound is stronger against the euro.

At 16:19 GMT GBP/USD has almost caught up on the day, at 1.6024, just barely below the open at 1.6025. EUR/GBP is still lower at 0.8316, down from the open at 0.8338.

UK Pound Higher Against Greenback, Aussie

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UK pound is finding some strength today against the US dollar and the Australian dollar. Sterling is rising against the greenback as risk appetite makes an appearance, and gaining against the Aussie as the news about China continues to weigh on the Down Under currency.


UK pound has been struggling recently, thanks in large part to an unpopular budget announced by George Osborne. Concerns about the fact that the budget cuts spending, as well as taxes, are weighing as it appears that there won’t be much to help stimulate the economy.

Today, though, sterling is seeing some success. While the British currency is losing ground to the euro, it is gaining against the US dollar. Greenback is under pressure today as gold prices bounce back, and as a measure of risk appetite returns. This general risk appetite is helping the UK pound.

Against the Aussie, the pound is getting help from the fact that China is showing signs of slowing growth. Australia is a major trading partner with China, and with Chinese demand in doubt, the Australian dollar is pulling back, leaving room for the sterling to gain.

At 14:16 GMT GBP/USD is at 1.5837, up from the open at 1.5818. EUR/GBP is up to 0.8352, up from the open at 0.8342. GBP/AUD is gaining, moving up to 1.5258 from the open at 1.5209.

UK Pound Drops on Government Borrowing

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UK pound is struggling today, dropping on the latest figures related to government borrowing. As the government prepares to share its new budget, it’s clear that there isn’t going to be much room for stimulus. The news has the sterling heading lower against the euro and the US dollar today.
Borrowing figures for the British government show that, year-to-date in February, the UK government has borrowed 110 billion pounds. The news came as public sector borrowing increased by 15.2 billion pounds in February. This amounts to record borrowing for the UK government, and many are concerned about the ability of Britain’s policymakers to stimulate growth.
Indeed, some think that the recently released figures indicate that Britain’s situation is worse than many expected. And, with so much borrowing going on, there isn’t a lot that can be done in terms of offering tax breaks, or increasing spending, as ways to stimulate economic growth. It doesn’t look like there is a lot that can be done, and it may be that another round quantitative easing is in the works from the Bank of England.

This uncertainty, and the concern that the British economy might be in trouble, is contributing to a lower pound today. The pound is down against the euro and the US dollar on this news of weakness.

At 13:15 GMT GBP/USD is down to 1.5842 from the open at 1.5858. EUR/GBP is lower at 0.8350, down 0.8339.

GBP Fluctuates After Jobless Claims Climb

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The Great Britain pound fluctuated versus the US dollar today after a report showed that jobless claims rose last month more than was predicted. The currency was falling throughout the first half of the trading session, then rebounded and now fluctuates in a wide range.
Claims for unemployment benefits rose by 7,200 jobs in February, following the 7,000 increase in January. That was the 12th consecutive increase. The median forecast was a growth by 6,500 jobs. Unemployment rate remained stable at 8.4 percent.
GBP/USD traded at 1.5700 as of 12:09 GMT after opening at 1.5706. The daily maximum was 1.5743 and the minimum was 1.5648.

UK Pound Gains on Economic Data

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UK pound is gaining today, thanks in part to better than expected economic data out of Great Britain. Good news is helping the pound against the US dollar and against the euro. While there are still some hurdles for sterling, right now the outlook is pretty good.


UK trade deficit data came in under the estimate, showing a narrower than expected gap. Instead of 1.9 billion pounds of deficit, Britain saw 1.762 billion pounds. This indication that demand for exports is growing provided a bit of a boost to the UK pound. On top of that, RICS housing price data showed better than expected improvement as well. The good news continues to support the pound against the US dollar and the euro.

However, even with this good news, the pound has a long road ahead. There are plenty of concerns, including the slow economic growth in Britain. Austerity measures have been in effect under David Cameron‘s government, and the improved export picture might not do enough to boost the British economy — especially if exports slow again as a result of global economic slow.

At 14:17 GMT GBP/USD is higher at 1.5683, up from the open at 1.5635. EUR/GBP is lower at 0.8332, down from the open at 0.8409. GBP/JPY is higher at 129.1425, up from the open at 108.2400.
 
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